Patrick McKenzie's predictions
Public predictions Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) made from 2023-11 to 2026-11, each checked against what happened.
2 pending calls, none resolved yet
2 pending
Nothing resolved yet, so there is no accuracy percentage.
Next deadline: 2030-12-31. Pending calls are not part of the score.
Pending
Not resolved yet, so not counted. Dated calls are listed first.
- Pending2026-03-10· AI capability· due 2030-12-31
(I think I expect a Factorio launch much sooner than I expect an IRL factory à la AI 2027’s predictions of substantial improvements in SotA in IRL manufacturing. I do not expect FactorioBench to be unsolved in 2030.)
FactorioBench solved by 2030.
- Pending2024-03-21· Jobs· due 2030-12-31
@angrynoah There are 60 draft picks for the NBA every year. I think tens of thousands of people in software will have 7 figure pay packages by 2030. More numerous than tenured professors at Ivy League or comparable schools. Total percentage of engineering employment less meaningful to me.
By 2030.
Compare with other makers
91.7%6 resolved · low confidence
43.8%8 resolved · medium confidence
20%5 resolved · low confidence
100%2 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
Patrick McKenzie's maker profile →Last checked 2026-11-05
Frequently asked questions
How accurate are Patrick McKenzie's predictions?
Patrick McKenzie has 2 pending predictions and none resolved, so there is no accuracy score yet.
How is the score calculated?
Came true = 1, mostly true = 0.75, partly true = 0.5, mostly wrong = 0.25, wrong = 0, averaged over resolved predictions. Pending calls and posts that are too vague to check are not scored. Personal goals are included unless the filter on this page is checked. Confidence is low below 8 resolved, medium from 8 to 15, and high above 15.