Ian Nuttall's predictions
Public predictions Ian Nuttall (@iannuttall) made from 2023-11 to 2026-11, each checked against what happened.
low confidence
1 came true · 4 pending · 1 not checkable
Needs 5 resolved predictions to be ranked. This score is low confidence.
Next deadline: 2027-01-21. Pending calls are not part of the score.
By topic
Accuracy on the calls that have resolved, with the sample size.
- AI products100%
1 resolved · low confidence
Scored predictions
- Came true2025-05-03· AI products· due 2026-05-03
Cloudflare and @AnthropicAI are highly motivated to make MCP work Anthropic just launched "Integrations" which is really hosted and verified MCP servers and I predict an app store/marketplace = instant distribution! + thanks to Epic hopefully no fees ;)
Predicted an MCP app store/marketplace. Anthropic launched the Claude connectors directory (claude.ai/directory) on 2025-07-14, with one-click MCP connectors.
Pending
Not resolved yet, so not counted. Dated calls are listed first.
- Pending2026-01-21· AI capability· due 2027-01-21
hot take 🌶️ i fucking love ai and am extremely bullish on it for software engineering but unless models have a HUGE jump very quickly, there is no way "most, maybe all" software engineering will be automated in 6-12 months
No full SWE automation in 6-12 months.
- Pending2025-09-05· Peer businesses
@Shpigford @maybe @zg_dev calling it now - this is gonna be bigger than baremetrics ever was
Open-ended.
- Pending2025-06-06· Acquisitions
calling it now, taskmaster will get acquired by cursor 👀
Open-ended.
- Pending2025-04-11· Acquisitions
calling it now: repo prompt is gonna get acquired by cursor ;)
Open-ended.
Not checkable
Kept so the record is complete. Too vague, or a private metric, so not scored.
- Not checkable2025-11-23· AI products
Hot take 🌶️ If Opus 4.5 ships with reasonable pricing and doesn’t need prompt engineering tricks to do its best work, it will instantly become everyone’s daily driver for programming again
Personal tool choice.
Compare with other makers
91.7%6 resolved · low confidence
43.8%8 resolved · medium confidence
20%5 resolved · low confidence
100%2 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
87.5%2 resolved · low confidence
Ian Nuttall's maker profile →Last checked 2026-11-05
Frequently asked questions
How accurate are Ian Nuttall's predictions?
Ian Nuttall's tracked predictions score 100% across 1 resolved call (low confidence). 4 are still pending.
How is the score calculated?
Came true = 1, mostly true = 0.75, partly true = 0.5, mostly wrong = 0.25, wrong = 0, averaged over resolved predictions. Pending calls and posts that are too vague to check are not scored. Personal goals are included unless the filter on this page is checked. Confidence is low below 8 resolved, medium from 8 to 15, and high above 15.