Neil Patel's predictions
Public predictions Neil Patel (@neilpatel) made from 2023-11 to 2026-11, each checked against what happened.
low confidence
1 came true · 1 mostly true · 2 pending · 1 not checkable
Needs 5 resolved predictions to be ranked. This score is low confidence.
Next deadline: 2034-11-01. Pending calls are not part of the score.
By topic
Accuracy on the calls that have resolved, with the sample size.
- Search100%
1 resolved · low confidence
- Regulation75%
1 resolved · low confidence
Longest-horizon call
Stated deadline 2026-12-31.
- Came true2024-03-02· Search· due 2026-12-31
Gartner is wrong. They predict traditional search engines will decline in traffic by 25% by 2026. Just because ChatGPT can answer your questions it doesn’t mean people will stop using search. First off platforms adapt and change over time. Second, people have use cases for
Disputed Gartner's forecast of a 25% drop in search volume by 2026. Google searches grew 21.6% in 2024 (SparkToro/Datos). Alphabet reported all-time-high query volume in Q1 2026 and its fastest query growth in five years in Q3 2026 (https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/alphabet-earnings-q3-2026/).
Scored predictions
- Mostly true2024-04-26· Regulation· due 2026-01-31
Stop worrying about TikTok being banned… it’s not going to happen. As a content creator, you have nothing to worry about. Sure, the US may say it is going to be “banned,” but it won’t happen. Imagine yourself owning a $100 billion company. Would you rather let it go to $0
The ban never took lasting effect. TikTok went dark for about 12 hours on 2025-01-19, then a US joint venture closed in Jan 2026 to avoid a ban. ByteDance did have to give up control, which the law required.
- Came true2024-03-02· Search· due 2026-12-31
Gartner is wrong. They predict traditional search engines will decline in traffic by 25% by 2026. Just because ChatGPT can answer your questions it doesn’t mean people will stop using search. First off platforms adapt and change over time. Second, people have use cases for
Disputed Gartner's forecast of a 25% drop in search volume by 2026. Google searches grew 21.6% in 2024 (SparkToro/Datos). Alphabet reported all-time-high query volume in Q1 2026 and its fastest query growth in five years in Q3 2026 (https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/alphabet-earnings-q3-2026/).
Pending
Not resolved yet, so not counted. Dated calls are listed first.
- Pending2024-11-01· Search· due 2034-11-01
Search Prediction: Within the next 10 years, voice search will overtake text-based search. Check out this chart. As you can see, the younger generations prefer searching via voice versus text. It also makes sense because 3-year-olds search through devices like Alexa using their voices, as they can’t type yet. As time passes and the younger generation grows up, they will be used to searching through voice first. And as AI technology gets implemented in more hardware and improves in quality, the older generations will slowly start adapting to voice search.
Voice search overtaking text within 10 years.
- Pending2026-01-01· AI browsers
Everyone keeps asking if AI browsers are about to replace Chrome. I don’t see it happening anytime soon. We already have browsers people trust. Unless someone builds something truly new and wild, most users aren’t switching. Google will just absorb AI into what already exists, and ChatGPT will likely live inside Chrome, not replace it. The bigger issue is trust. If people don’t trust an AI to protect their data, they’re not letting it log into their bank, shop for them, or make decisions on their behalf. That skepticism isn’t going away fast, which means adoption will be slower than the hype suggests. AI isn’t losing. It’s just going to show up everywhere quietly, not take over overnight. #AITrends #TechTalk #FutureOfAI #DigitalTrust #ProductAdoption
'Not anytime soon.' Open-ended.
Not checkable
Kept so the record is complete. Too vague, or a private metric, so not scored.
- Not checkable2024-05-14· Search
Google’s search results have drastically changed in the last 30 days, and this trend will reverse over the next year or two. So, with Ubersuggest, we crawl over a billion keywords monthly— literally over a billion. In the last 30 days, we noticed that queries without SGE
Truncated. It is unclear which 'trend' (SGE vs non-SGE queries) he meant would reverse.
Compare with other makers
91.7%6 resolved · low confidence
43.8%8 resolved · medium confidence
20%5 resolved · low confidence
100%2 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
Neil Patel's maker profile →Last checked 2026-11-05
Frequently asked questions
How accurate are Neil Patel's predictions?
Neil Patel's tracked predictions score 87.5% across 2 resolved calls (low confidence). 2 are still pending.
How is the score calculated?
Came true = 1, mostly true = 0.75, partly true = 0.5, mostly wrong = 0.25, wrong = 0, averaged over resolved predictions. Pending calls and posts that are too vague to check are not scored. Personal goals are included unless the filter on this page is checked. Confidence is low below 8 resolved, medium from 8 to 15, and high above 15.