Sam Parr's predictions
Public predictions Sam Parr (@thesamparr) made from 2023-11 to 2026-11, each checked against what happened.
low confidence
2 came true · 1 not checkable
Needs 5 resolved predictions to be ranked. This score is low confidence.
By topic
Accuracy on the calls that have resolved, with the sample size.
- Politics100%
1 resolved · low confidence
- Wealth100%
1 resolved · low confidence
Longest-horizon call
Stated deadline 2034-12-11.
- Came true2024-12-11· Wealth· due 2034-12-11
You ever think how much a trillion dollar is? There's a good chance that Elon will be worth that inside the next 10 years (or close). A person worth one trillion dollars compared to someone worth $100 million (also a ton) ...is the same as a person with $10,000,000 compared
Said Elon would likely be worth ~$1T within 10 years. Forbes named him the first trillionaire on 2026-06-12, after the SpaceX IPO. Bloomberg has him at about $865B in Nov 2026, so he has since dipped below.
Scored predictions
- Came true2025-02-13· Politics· due 2025-12-31
Which month are yall predicting for when the Elon Trump break up will happen this year? And what do you think some of the funnier insults will be? I bet Elon gets a replicate of the White House desk that’s 2x the size of trumps.
Implied prediction that the Musk-Trump split would happen in 2025. It happened in early June 2025 (Reuters).
- Came true2024-12-11· Wealth· due 2034-12-11
You ever think how much a trillion dollar is? There's a good chance that Elon will be worth that inside the next 10 years (or close). A person worth one trillion dollars compared to someone worth $100 million (also a ton) ...is the same as a person with $10,000,000 compared
Said Elon would likely be worth ~$1T within 10 years. Forbes named him the first trillionaire on 2026-06-12, after the SpaceX IPO. Bloomberg has him at about $865B in Nov 2026, so he has since dipped below.
Not checkable
Kept so the record is complete. Too vague, or a private metric, so not scored.
- Not checkable2024-06-04· Social media
Prediction. We all finna flock to LinkedIn. Just like fb limited reach, same will happen to Twitter ( then LinkedIn, then whatever else.)
Vague ('we all flock to LinkedIn').
Compare with other makers
91.7%6 resolved · low confidence
43.8%8 resolved · medium confidence
20%5 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
87.5%2 resolved · low confidence
Sam Parr's maker profile →Last checked 2026-11-05
Frequently asked questions
How accurate are Sam Parr's predictions?
Sam Parr's tracked predictions score 100% across 2 resolved calls (low confidence). 0 are still pending.
How is the score calculated?
Came true = 1, mostly true = 0.75, partly true = 0.5, mostly wrong = 0.25, wrong = 0, averaged over resolved predictions. Pending calls and posts that are too vague to check are not scored. Personal goals are included unless the filter on this page is checked. Confidence is low below 8 resolved, medium from 8 to 15, and high above 15.