John Rush's predictions
Public predictions John Rush (@johnrush) made from 2023-11 to 2026-11, each checked against what happened.
Optimist#2 of 5
1 came true · 2 mostly true · 2 partly true · 3 wrong · 9 pending
By topic
- AI 40% of 5
- Tech 50% of 3
Scored predictions
- Came true2025-10-10· Tech
Stack Overflow is finished as AI replaces it for developer Q&A.
Monthly questions fell to 2009 levels by mid-2025 and dropped about 78% year over year by Dec 2025. The decline was already obvious when he posted, so this was low-risk.
- Wrong2025-10-10· AI
LLMs plateaued after GPT-4 and won't make big further leaps.
Reasoning models, GPT-5 and Gemini 3 (Nov 2025) all brought large benchmark and capability gains well beyond GPT-4.
- Partly true2025-10-10· Tech
AI chat will replace web search.
Chat assistants took a real share of queries and AI Overviews cut clicks, but Google kept about 90% search share and its daily search volume grew.
- Mostly true2024-12-17· AI
not 91. but most "questions" will be answered by Google AI. Which means entire category of content will die in SEO. but there are other categories, which won't be affected
AI Overviews sharply cut clicks for informational queries; Q&A content was hit hardest.
- Mostly true2024-08-07· AI
The AI model race will plateau, with the major providers, open source included, ending up at roughly the same level.
Stanford's 2025 AI Index found the gap between top models, and between open and closed models, had shrunk to a few points. Frontier labs still leapfrog each other with new releases, though, so convergence happened without a plateau.
- Wrong2024-01-22· AI· due 2025-12-31
I guess it's still 2021 for AI startups. I'd expect large disappointment by 2025 for VCs again
AI drew record VC funding in 2025, not a broad disappointment.
- Wrong2023-12-28· Tech· due 2025-12-31
- End Of SaaS +Birth of SaaS OS __By the end of 2025, I'll launch 1000 products. __These products are going to run on a new SaaS OS. __It'll transform the software world as we know it. __You won't take it seriously u...
Self-goal. The portfolio is about 24 products, far short of 1000.
- Partly true2023-11-11· AI· due 2024-12-31
Yes, In about a month the custom gpt hype will slow down, since you can only build a conversational products there, which is still not the best interface for a regular user, we had it with com and line 40 years ago a...
Custom-GPT hype did fade within months (true), but 'custom GPTs with UI' did not become 2024's biggest hype. In-ChatGPT apps only arrived in Oct 2025.
Pending
Not resolved yet, so not counted.
- Pending2026· Tech
The open-source movement will end because AI can rewrite any repo and companies can redistribute the result commercially as their own.
No deadline. Open source was still active as of Nov 2026.
- Pending2025-12-02· AI
OpenAI will collapse like earlier pioneers (Yahoo, MySpace, BlackBerry, Netscape), losing out to Grok, Gemini and Claude.
OpenAI was still operating and a top player as of Nov 2026. Too early to call.
- Pending2025-10-10· Markets· due 2027
The AI bubble will burst and cause a stock market crash in 2027.
Deadline is 2027.
- Pending2025-04-05· AI· due 2026-12-31
2// AI-leverage creates niche monopolies. > few onlyfaan creators runs thousands of AI generated models. They will be making more than humans by 2026. The secret sauce can be scaled infinitely once discovered. Just l...
Resolve end of 2026. Likely to become UNVERIFIABLE (no public earnings data).
- Pending2025-02-17· AI· due 2035-02-17
5. Robots are having wild progress, I'm absolutely confident we will be living among robots in 10 years. Same as everyone got a phone today, we will be having personal robots, home robots, nanny bots, and more. http...
10-year horizon.
- Pending2024-08-07· Space
Elon Musk will launch a satellite platform that developers can build and deploy apps on.
No deadline. As of Nov 2026, Starlink offers no general third-party app platform.
- Pending2024-06-14· Other· due 2034-06-14
only a few percent of people will be entrepreneurs. The rest will be sitting on UBI and consuming the stuff created by entrepreneurs. It's just that today being an employee has some meaning and purpos...
10-year horizon.
- Pending2024-06-10· Other· due 2029-06-10
I’ve done the same, u just cut the layers and both the middle and the bottoms and only leave the doers. Cut all “managers”. Every group that’s larger than 10 should be reduced to 2-7. In 5 years from now mos...
5-year horizon.
- Pending2023-11-11· AI
The cloud AI will always be ahead of local AI. I mean even if we get local AI as good as gpt4 next year, it just means the cloud AI will be on GPT5 level. For local tasks like translation it's smart to run local AI, ...
Holding so far (frontier models are cloud-hosted). Re-check yearly.
John Rush's maker profile →Data updated 2026-11-05
Compare with other makers
92%
27%
20%
0%
100%
100%
Frequently asked questions
How accurate are John Rush's predictions?
John Rush got 44% of 8 resolved predictions right (1 came true, 3 were wrong), with 9 still pending.
How does John Rush rank as a predictor?
John Rush ranks #2 of 5 makers with at least 3 resolved predictions on IndieMakerList.
How is the score calculated?
Came true = 1, mostly true = 0.75, partly true = 0.5, wrong = 0, averaged over resolved predictions. Pending predictions aren't scored until they resolve.