Noah Kagan's predictions
Public predictions Noah Kagan (@noahkagan) made from 2023-11 to 2026-11, each checked against what happened.
low confidence
1 came true · 1 wrong
Needs 5 resolved predictions to be ranked. This score is low confidence.
By topic
Accuracy on the calls that have resolved, with the sample size.
- Cars100%
1 resolved · low confidence
- Markets0%
1 resolved · low confidence
Longest-horizon call
Stated deadline 2025-12-31.
- Came true2023-12-09· Cars· due 2025-12-31
Have feeling Tesla cyber truck is going to be HUGE flop. Tons of people messaging say they are skipping actually ordering it.
CNN (Jul 2025): 'officially, a flop.' US sales fell 48% in 2025 to ~20k (Cox/USA Today). Noah conceded 'I was wrong' in Oct 2024 (x.com/noahkagan/status/1847304887463510041) during the 2024 launch-year bump, but the final outcome matched his call.
Scored predictions
- Wrong2025-10-08· Markets· due 2026-10-08
@wolfejosh 💯 agree. Have bet with friend market down within a year.
Bet the market would be down within a year. S&P 500: 6,753.72 on 2025-10-08 (https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-street-futures-tick-up-with-fed-commentary-minutes-focus-2025-10-08/) vs 7,765.36 on 2026-10-08, up about 15%.
- Came true2023-12-09· Cars· due 2025-12-31
Have feeling Tesla cyber truck is going to be HUGE flop. Tons of people messaging say they are skipping actually ordering it.
CNN (Jul 2025): 'officially, a flop.' US sales fell 48% in 2025 to ~20k (Cox/USA Today). Noah conceded 'I was wrong' in Oct 2024 (x.com/noahkagan/status/1847304887463510041) during the 2024 launch-year bump, but the final outcome matched his call.
Compare with other makers
91.7%6 resolved · low confidence
43.8%8 resolved · medium confidence
20%5 resolved · low confidence
100%2 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
Noah Kagan's maker profile →Last checked 2026-11-05
Frequently asked questions
How accurate are Noah Kagan's predictions?
Noah Kagan's tracked predictions score 50% across 2 resolved calls (low confidence). 0 are still pending.
How is the score calculated?
Came true = 1, mostly true = 0.75, partly true = 0.5, mostly wrong = 0.25, wrong = 0, averaged over resolved predictions. Pending calls and posts that are too vague to check are not scored. Personal goals are included unless the filter on this page is checked. Confidence is low below 8 resolved, medium from 8 to 15, and high above 15.