Maciej Cegłowski's predictions
Public predictions Maciej Cegłowski (@Pinboard) made from 2023-11 to 2026-11, each checked against what happened.
low confidence
2 came true · 1 wrong
Needs 5 resolved predictions to be ranked. This score is low confidence.
By topic
Accuracy on the calls that have resolved, with the sample size.
- Space66.7%
3 resolved · low confidence
Longest-horizon call
Stated deadline 2026-12-31.
- Came true2024-04-07· Space· due 2026-12-31
This is an open admission by Musk that Artemis 3 won't happen in 2026. There's not enough time in the schedule to go from demonstrating propellant transfer in 2025 to getting it working reliably enough for an HLS demo flight in early 2026.
'Artemis 3 won't happen in 2026.' NASA moved Artemis III to 2027 (now a low-Earth-orbit lander test, summer/late 2027). He repeated the call on 2024-05-24 (x.com/Pinboard/status/1794026281861775461).
Scored predictions
- Came true2025-06-23· Space· due 2026-12-31
@lukeleisher I mean, they can't open a door in orbit right now, orbital refueling is not going to happen in time for Mars.
Orbital refueling 'not going to happen in time for Mars' (the late-2026 window). SpaceX delayed its Mars plans to focus on the Moon and had not attempted ship-to-ship propellant transfer as of Nov 2026.
- Wrong2025-03-24· Space
Adding my name to the "this rocket [SLS] will never fly again" list.
'This rocket [SLS] will never fly again.' SLS launched Artemis II with four astronauts on 2026-04-01 and the crew returned safely on 2026-04-10. Restated 2025-03-28 (x.com/Pinboard/status/1905729575898042373).
- Came true2024-04-07· Space· due 2026-12-31
This is an open admission by Musk that Artemis 3 won't happen in 2026. There's not enough time in the schedule to go from demonstrating propellant transfer in 2025 to getting it working reliably enough for an HLS demo flight in early 2026.
'Artemis 3 won't happen in 2026.' NASA moved Artemis III to 2027 (now a low-Earth-orbit lander test, summer/late 2027). He repeated the call on 2024-05-24 (x.com/Pinboard/status/1794026281861775461).
Compare with other makers
91.7%6 resolved · low confidence
43.8%8 resolved · medium confidence
20%5 resolved · low confidence
100%2 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
Maciej Cegłowski's maker profile →Last checked 2026-11-05
Frequently asked questions
How accurate are Maciej Cegłowski's predictions?
Maciej Cegłowski's tracked predictions score 66.7% across 3 resolved calls (low confidence). 0 are still pending.
How is the score calculated?
Came true = 1, mostly true = 0.75, partly true = 0.5, mostly wrong = 0.25, wrong = 0, averaged over resolved predictions. Pending calls and posts that are too vague to check are not scored. Personal goals are included unless the filter on this page is checked. Confidence is low below 8 resolved, medium from 8 to 15, and high above 15.