Elie Steinbock's predictions
Public predictions Elie Steinbock (@elie2222) made from 2023-11 to 2026-11, each checked against what happened.
low confidence
2 came true · 1 wrong
Needs 5 resolved predictions to be ranked. This score is low confidence.
By topic
Accuracy on the calls that have resolved, with the sample size.
- Payments100%
1 resolved · low confidence
- Crypto100%
1 resolved · low confidence
- Geopolitics0%
1 resolved · low confidence
Longest-horizon call
Stated deadline 2026-06-22.
- Wrong2025-06-22· Geopolitics· due 2026-06-22
Thank you America. Here’s to a more peaceful Middle East. Within the next year countries throughout the Middle East will be signing peace accords, the Iranian people will be free of its dictators, and the Middle East will prosper. To new beginnings.
Within a year: Middle East peace accords and Iranians free of their dictators. The Islamic Republic is still in power (new Supreme Leader after Ali Khamenei's death) and no new Abraham Accords signatories.
Scored predictions
- Wrong2025-06-22· Geopolitics· due 2026-06-22
Thank you America. Here’s to a more peaceful Middle East. Within the next year countries throughout the Middle East will be signing peace accords, the Iranian people will be free of its dictators, and the Middle East will prosper. To new beginnings.
Within a year: Middle East peace accords and Iranians free of their dictators. The Islamic Republic is still in power (new Supreme Leader after Ali Khamenei's death) and no new Abraham Accords signatories.
- Came true2025-06-12· Payments· due 2026-06-12
@checkerschaf @stripe stripe. are you sure you need mor? keep it simple and go with stripe. they'll add MOR in the next year
Stripe would add merchant-of-record 'in the next year'. Stripe Managed Payments (MoR) went GA on 2026-04-22.
- Came true2024-11-26· Crypto· due 2024-12-03
@nilskp @BTCBullRider @pjsriman @ShaanVP @saylor Not sure if you're a bot. But believing something doesn't make it reality. You can believe BTC will be at $200k next week. But I predict it won't be. Check back in next week if I predicted the future correctly. Time for me to mute this thread.
Predicted BTC would not be at $200k the next week. BTC first crossed $100k on 2024-12-05 (peak ~$103.6k).
Compare with other makers
91.7%6 resolved · low confidence
43.8%8 resolved · medium confidence
20%5 resolved · low confidence
100%2 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
Elie Steinbock's maker profile →Last checked 2026-11-05
Frequently asked questions
How accurate are Elie Steinbock's predictions?
Elie Steinbock's tracked predictions score 66.7% across 3 resolved calls (low confidence). 0 are still pending.
How is the score calculated?
Came true = 1, mostly true = 0.75, partly true = 0.5, mostly wrong = 0.25, wrong = 0, averaged over resolved predictions. Pending calls and posts that are too vague to check are not scored. Personal goals are included unless the filter on this page is checked. Confidence is low below 8 resolved, medium from 8 to 15, and high above 15.