Ryan Carson's predictions
Public predictions Ryan Carson (@ryancarson) made from 2023-11 to 2026-11, each checked against what happened.
low confidence
1 partly true · 1 not checkable
Needs 5 resolved predictions to be ranked. This score is low confidence.
By topic
Accuracy on the calls that have resolved, with the sample size.
- Developer tools50%
1 resolved · low confidence
Scored predictions
- Partly true2025-07-19· Developer tools· due 2026-07-19
Prediction: I think a large number of leading-edge devs will stop using IDEs in the next 12 months. I've always used an IDE because I like the UI, but I find that for agentic coding, there's now a huge amount of cruft in the IDE UI that just slows me down and slows the agent down. I'm moving to just using CLI agents + gitui + a couple terminal panes and I'm way faster. Curious to hear everyone's thoughts. I think we're starting to see the beginning of SDLC 2.0 This also means it's time for GitHub 2.0 to emerge.
Terminal agents boomed: Claude Code reached ~39% workplace adoption in mid-2026 (JetBrains). But most developers use them alongside an IDE rather than instead of one.
Not checkable
Kept so the record is complete. Too vague, or a private metric, so not scored.
- Not checkable2025-04-03· Startups· due 2026-04-03
We’re going to see thousands of small vertical-specific startups launch in the next 12 months. Bootstrapped, 1-2 people, $1m/yr revs. IYKYK The smart investors will be trying to write $500k checks to 2nd-time founders launching these companies, but probably most of the founders will say no - they just don’t need the capital to get PMF. Why give up 10-20% of the company?
'Thousands' of $1M/yr 1-2 person vertical startups. No countable source.
Compare with other makers
91.7%6 resolved · low confidence
43.8%8 resolved · medium confidence
20%5 resolved · low confidence
100%2 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
Ryan Carson's maker profile →Last checked 2026-11-05
Frequently asked questions
How accurate are Ryan Carson's predictions?
Ryan Carson's tracked predictions score 50% across 1 resolved call (low confidence). 0 are still pending.
How is the score calculated?
Came true = 1, mostly true = 0.75, partly true = 0.5, mostly wrong = 0.25, wrong = 0, averaged over resolved predictions. Pending calls and posts that are too vague to check are not scored. Personal goals are included unless the filter on this page is checked. Confidence is low below 8 resolved, medium from 8 to 15, and high above 15.