Pat Walls's predictions
Public predictions Pat Walls (@thepatwalls) made from 2023-11 to 2026-11, each checked against what happened.
50%
Unscored
1 partly true · 5 pending
Needs 3 resolved predictions to be ranked.
Scored predictions
- Partly true2025-01-22· AI
I believe SEO is pretty much dead. Websites that get a lot of traffic will die a slow death, from a 3 pronged approach: 1. Competitors use AI to outrank you in the longtail. 2. Consumers use ChatGPT over Google more...
Organic clicks fell meaningfully, but SEO is still a large channel.
Pending
Not resolved yet, so not counted.
- Pending2026-07-22· AI
I think the AI bubble is still a while from popping. I've been studying history a bit and learning about the dot com bubble. What I thought was interesting and comparable were the "browser wars": Netscape (@pmarca) ...
Re-check yearly.
- Pending2026-05-22· AI
B2B software is not a great model right now. And I predict a small shift towards services/agency model (in B2B). Just talked to a founder who proved it. For 2+ years, he spent $100k building an AI SaaS and only made...
Not resolved yet.
- Pending2026-01-08· AI· due 2027-12-31
yeah. looking at the progress of vibe coding tools in one year it's pretty crazy. claude code released in 2025! so i think by 2027 the building part might be a lot more solved.
Not resolved yet.
- Pending2025-06-18· AI
Here's what's gonna happen with AI coding tools. 1. First the wrappers win by being first to market (Cursor, Lovable) 2. Then MANGO wins by making it free (Anthropic, OpenAI, Google) 3. Then open source wins with the...
Multi-stage forecast; stage 1 happened.
- Pending2024-01-10· Business· due 2034-01-10
Once crossed $1M I thought a lot about what's next... Stay small? Launch the next thing? But I keep coming back to Starter Story. I think it can be a $50M/year business in 10 years. Under t...
10-year horizon.
Pat Walls's maker profile →Data updated 2026-11-05
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Frequently asked questions
How accurate are Pat Walls's predictions?
Pat Walls got 50% of 1 resolved predictions right (0 came true, 0 were wrong), with 5 still pending.
How is the score calculated?
Came true = 1, mostly true = 0.75, partly true = 0.5, wrong = 0, averaged over resolved predictions. Pending predictions aren't scored until they resolve.