Nick Saraev's predictions
Public predictions Nick Saraev (@nicksaraev) made from 2023-11 to 2026-11, each checked against what happened.
2 pending calls, none resolved yet
2 pending
Nothing resolved yet, so there is no accuracy percentage.
Next deadline: 2027-12-31. Pending calls are not part of the score.
Pending
Not resolved yet, so not counted. Dated calls are listed first.
- Pending2026-10-18· AI models· due 2027-12-31
By next year we'll all have Opus-6 at home.
Opus-level local models 'next year'.
- Pending2026-08-20· AI media· due 2028-08-20
Good development. Within a year or two AI will probably sound indistinguishable to humans.
'Within a year or two.'
Compare with other makers
91.7%6 resolved · low confidence
43.8%8 resolved · medium confidence
20%5 resolved · low confidence
100%2 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
Nick Saraev's maker profile →Last checked 2026-11-05
Frequently asked questions
How accurate are Nick Saraev's predictions?
Nick Saraev has 2 pending predictions and none resolved, so there is no accuracy score yet.
How is the score calculated?
Came true = 1, mostly true = 0.75, partly true = 0.5, mostly wrong = 0.25, wrong = 0, averaged over resolved predictions. Pending calls and posts that are too vague to check are not scored. Personal goals are included unless the filter on this page is checked. Confidence is low below 8 resolved, medium from 8 to 15, and high above 15.