Nick Huber's predictions
Public predictions Nick Huber (@sweatystartup) made from 2023-11 to 2026-11, each checked against what happened.
low confidence
1 mostly wrong · 1 wrong · 8 pending
Needs 5 resolved predictions to be ranked. This score is low confidence.
Next deadline: 2026-12-31. Pending calls are not part of the score.
By topic
Accuracy on the calls that have resolved, with the sample size.
- Real estate12.5%
2 resolved · low confidence
Longest-horizon call
Stated deadline 2025-12-31.
- Mostly wrong2024-09-18· Real estate· due 2025-12-31
A 50 bps rate cut. Real estate about to get fun again!
After the Sept 2024 50bp cut, mortgage rates went back up to about 7% and 2025 sales stayed at a 30-year low (4.06M). Commercial/rate-sensitive deals improved a little, but 'fun again' did not happen.
Scored predictions
- Mostly wrong2024-09-18· Real estate· due 2025-12-31
A 50 bps rate cut. Real estate about to get fun again!
After the Sept 2024 50bp cut, mortgage rates went back up to about 7% and 2025 sales stayed at a 30-year low (4.06M). Commercial/rate-sensitive deals improved a little, but 'fun again' did not happen.
- Wrong2023-12-31· Real estate· due 2024-12-31
Prediction: 2024 will be the year real estate gets good again. Learn the basics (NOI and Cap rates) in this free course I made:
NAR: 2024 existing-home sales fell to 4.06M, the lowest since 1995, with record-high prices and ~7% mortgage rates. Not the year real estate 'got good again'.
Pending
Not resolved yet, so not counted. Dated calls are listed first.
- Pending2026-08-06· Markets· due 2026-12-31
Spacex stock will be $25 by the end of the year.
SpaceX stock $25 by end of 2026. Deadline not reached.
- Pending2025-12-20· Economy· due 2026-12-31
My 2026 Predictions: 1) AI bubble pops in a major way 2) The big 4 automakers give up on electric vehicles 3) Ongoing recession from trades to real estate 4) More and more companies stop hiring Americans and build executive teams in South Africa and Latam
2026 predictions list. Deadline is end of 2026.
- Pending2026-10-26· Markets· due 2027-04-30
My predictions over the following months: 1. Stock market will get hurt bad when the music stops on data centers, models, and chips. Too much froth, too high of investment, too many companies will fail. The switching costs are low. I don't know how these companies will become
'Over the following months.' Too early.
- Pending2024-08-02· Future of work· due 2029-08-02
@SievaKozinsky I hired a guy in Colombia a few years ago. He will be the CEO of one of my companies within 5 years. Mark my words!
5-year horizon.
- Pending2026-04-01· Self-driving· due 2031-04-01
@Camp4 I'm still right that adoption will be insanely slow compared to projections. 5 years from now less than 10% of the cars on the road will be FSD.
5-year horizon.
- Pending2026-06-25· Crypto· due 2036-06-25
If Bitcoin and crypto can’t gain ground in this unbelievable tech and AI run it’s a lost cause. It’ll slowly go to zero over the next 10 years. Clear as day.
10-year horizon.
- Pending2026-09-03· Robotics· due 2036-08-31
Insanely out of touch. 10 years from now 90% of households will have zero robots and those robots will be 1/10th as productive as a human.
10-year horizon.
- Pending2026-01-31· Crypto
I think bitcoin will go to zero. Can’t see any reason at this point why people would hold it.
Bitcoin to zero. No deadline.
Compare with other makers
91.7%6 resolved · low confidence
43.8%8 resolved · medium confidence
20%5 resolved · low confidence
100%2 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
Nick Huber's maker profile →Last checked 2026-11-05
Frequently asked questions
How accurate are Nick Huber's predictions?
Nick Huber's tracked predictions score 12.5% across 2 resolved calls (low confidence). 8 are still pending.
How is the score calculated?
Came true = 1, mostly true = 0.75, partly true = 0.5, mostly wrong = 0.25, wrong = 0, averaged over resolved predictions. Pending calls and posts that are too vague to check are not scored. Personal goals are included unless the filter on this page is checked. Confidence is low below 8 resolved, medium from 8 to 15, and high above 15.