Mckay Wrigley's predictions
Public predictions Mckay Wrigley (@mckaywrigley) made from 2023-11 to 2026-11, each checked against what happened.
75%
Unscored
1 mostly true · 2 pending
Needs 3 resolved predictions to be ranked.
Scored predictions
- Mostly true2025-07-12· AI· due 2025-12-31
My prediction: - Computer use will start to come online in the back half of this year - Will be a tool the CLI can use - I’ll still be working in Claude Code (or an equivalent)
ChatGPT agent (July 2025) and Claude for Chrome shipped in H2 2025; reliability is still mixed.
Pending
Not resolved yet, so not counted.
- Pending2025-12-10· AI· due 2027-12-31
When I say software will be solved, I just mean software work will almost entirely just be directing AI. I think almost no code will be hand written by 2027. Probably just incredibly low-level stuff at t...
Not resolved yet.
- Pending2025-01-21· AI· due 2026-12-31
Exponentials are near impossible to internalize. Your world model needs to account for things like digital AI workers by 2026, recursive automated AI research, etc. If you feel the AGI, educate those around you on w...
Not resolved yet.
Mckay Wrigley's maker profile →Data updated 2026-11-05
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Frequently asked questions
How accurate are Mckay Wrigley's predictions?
Mckay Wrigley got 75% of 1 resolved predictions right (0 came true, 0 were wrong), with 2 still pending.
How is the score calculated?
Came true = 1, mostly true = 0.75, partly true = 0.5, wrong = 0, averaged over resolved predictions. Pending predictions aren't scored until they resolve.