Jason Fried's predictions
Public predictions Jason Fried (@jasonfried) made from 2023-11 to 2026-11, each checked against what happened.
low confidence
1 partly true
Needs 5 resolved predictions to be ranked. This score is low confidence.
By topic
Accuracy on the calls that have resolved, with the sample size.
- Own business50%
1 resolved · low confidence
Scored predictions
- Partly true2025-01-23· Own business· due 2025-12-31
In addition to the Second Edition of Shape Up, continued improvement of Basecamp and HEY, we'll be launching two brand new products this year. One will be for wrangling loose groups of people. Home owners associations, neighborhood groups, teams, volunteers, parents, classes,
Promised two new products in 2025. Fizzy (the bug-tracker one) launched 3 Dec 2025. The loose-groups product did not ship; Fried later said they had been doing 'Fizzy plus another product' (37signals.com/podcast/revisiting-the-good-old-days).
Compare with other makers
91.7%6 resolved · low confidence
43.8%8 resolved · medium confidence
20%5 resolved · low confidence
100%2 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
Jason Fried's maker profile →Last checked 2026-11-05
Frequently asked questions
How accurate are Jason Fried's predictions?
Jason Fried's tracked predictions score 50% across 1 resolved call (low confidence). 0 are still pending.
How is the score calculated?
Came true = 1, mostly true = 0.75, partly true = 0.5, mostly wrong = 0.25, wrong = 0, averaged over resolved predictions. Pending calls and posts that are too vague to check are not scored. Personal goals are included unless the filter on this page is checked. Confidence is low below 8 resolved, medium from 8 to 15, and high above 15.