Jack Ellis's predictions
Public predictions Jack Ellis (@JackEllis) made from 2023-11 to 2026-11, each checked against what happened.
low confidence
1 came true · 1 mostly wrong · 1 not checkable
Needs 5 resolved predictions to be ranked. This score is low confidence.
By topic
Accuracy on the calls that have resolved, with the sample size.
- Politics100%
1 resolved · low confidence
- Developer tools25%
1 resolved · low confidence
Longest-horizon call
Stated deadline 2026-01-01.
- Mostly wrong2023-12-14· Developer tools· due 2026-01-01
@m1guelpf @mattwensing Alright then, big guy, let's place I bet 2 MIGUEL tokens that by 2026 they won't be able to do the complex stuff because they have no real source material on Stack Overflow.
Bet that by 2026 AI 'won't be able to do the complex stuff'. Claude Code reached a $1B run-rate by Dec 2025, and Jack himself later said Opus 4.5 (Nov 2025) 'changed the game' (x.com/JackEllis/status/2093729528942047309). Complex work still needs supervision, so MOSTLY_FALSE.
Scored predictions
- Came true2024-04-23· Politics· due 2025-12-31
@harleyf @skanwar Trudeau will be gone forever in 2025. My more left leaning friends are going NDP because they’re sick of his BS. And the more moderate friends, who typically would’ve voted liberal, are planning to vote conservative. We don’t need more doctors leaving this country 😩
'Trudeau will be gone forever in 2025.' Trudeau resigned and Mark Carney was sworn in on 2025-03-14.
- Mostly wrong2023-12-14· Developer tools· due 2026-01-01
@m1guelpf @mattwensing Alright then, big guy, let's place I bet 2 MIGUEL tokens that by 2026 they won't be able to do the complex stuff because they have no real source material on Stack Overflow.
Bet that by 2026 AI 'won't be able to do the complex stuff'. Claude Code reached a $1B run-rate by Dec 2025, and Jack himself later said Opus 4.5 (Nov 2025) 'changed the game' (x.com/JackEllis/status/2093729528942047309). Complex work still needs supervision, so MOSTLY_FALSE.
Not checkable
Kept so the record is complete. Too vague, or a private metric, so not scored.
- Not checkable2024-05-17· Politics
@MarkMcGrathCFP This is a great article. Our healthcare system is suffering already and now the government drives more doctors down south. Seeing a doctor in areas of BC requires waiting up to 8h in emergency. Or paying for private... My prediction is a PC win in 2025 and reversal of this.
'PC win in 2025' (BC healthcare context) is ambiguous about which election and party. The federal Conservatives lost on 2025-04-28, but 'PC' does not name that party.
Compare with other makers
91.7%6 resolved · low confidence
43.8%8 resolved · medium confidence
20%5 resolved · low confidence
100%2 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
Jack Ellis's maker profile →Last checked 2026-11-05
Frequently asked questions
How accurate are Jack Ellis's predictions?
Jack Ellis's tracked predictions score 62.5% across 2 resolved calls (low confidence). 0 are still pending.
How is the score calculated?
Came true = 1, mostly true = 0.75, partly true = 0.5, mostly wrong = 0.25, wrong = 0, averaged over resolved predictions. Pending calls and posts that are too vague to check are not scored. Personal goals are included unless the filter on this page is checked. Confidence is low below 8 resolved, medium from 8 to 15, and high above 15.