Daniel Priestley's predictions
Public predictions Daniel Priestley (@DanielPriestley) made from 2023-11 to 2026-11, each checked against what happened.
3 pending, 1 not checkable yet
3 pending · 1 not checkable
Nothing resolved yet, so there is no accuracy percentage.
Next deadline: 2030-01-16. Pending calls are not part of the score.
Pending
Not resolved yet, so not counted. Dated calls are listed first.
- Pending2025-01-16· AI health· due 2030-01-16
@ShepherdWales ChatGPT will be diagnosing most disease in 5 years. UK doctors earn far too little and endure far too much. He might have dodged a bullet. Tell him to launch a YouTube channel specialising in what peanut butter will or won’t stick to… that way he can make £1M+ per year and skip
5-year horizon.
- Pending2025-12-14· Self-driving· due 2030-12-31
Holy smokes … Full self-driving Tesla robo-taxis are now driving around Austin Texas. By 2030, it will be entirely normal in cities all over the world to jump into a driverless taxi and cross town for 80% less than it currently costs. Imagine a 40min journey for less than
By 2030.
- Pending2024-11-06· Economy· due 2030-12-31
@sosolidapps @DavidLammy @realDonaldTrump @Keir_Starmer The UK Gov is going to be lucky to get table scraps from the US - So much for the special relationship. In 2010 the UK was 21% the size of the US economy and today it’s 12%. By 2030, I’m guessing sub 10%. High taxes, attacking the producers and being miserable is not a path to
By 2030.
Not checkable
Kept so the record is complete. Too vague, or a private metric, so not scored.
- Not checkable2024-07-10· Policy
@NoLore I predict this will massively backfire on France. A specific prediction would be that dentists and specialist doctors leave in droves.
'Will massively backfire on France.' Vague.
Compare with other makers
91.7%6 resolved · low confidence
43.8%8 resolved · medium confidence
20%5 resolved · low confidence
100%2 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
Daniel Priestley's maker profile →Last checked 2026-11-05
Frequently asked questions
How accurate are Daniel Priestley's predictions?
Daniel Priestley has 3 pending predictions and none resolved, so there is no accuracy score yet.
How is the score calculated?
Came true = 1, mostly true = 0.75, partly true = 0.5, mostly wrong = 0.25, wrong = 0, averaged over resolved predictions. Pending calls and posts that are too vague to check are not scored. Personal goals are included unless the filter on this page is checked. Confidence is low below 8 resolved, medium from 8 to 15, and high above 15.