Ben Tossell's predictions
Public predictions Ben Tossell (@bentossell) made from 2023-11 to 2026-11, each checked against what happened.
50%
Unscored
1 partly true
Needs 3 resolved predictions to be ranked.
Scored predictions
- Partly true2023-11-20· AI· due 2023-12-31
prediction; sam and greg (+ all of openAI) go back to OpenAI everyone fired from board ilya stays at openai in research satya owns more of the company satya on board, chesky, and others i have breakdown trying t...
Sam and Greg returned and the board was replaced (true). Microsoft got only an observer seat, there was no Satya or Chesky board role, and Ilya left in 2024.
Ben Tossell's maker profile →Data updated 2026-11-05
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Frequently asked questions
How accurate are Ben Tossell's predictions?
Ben Tossell got 50% of 1 resolved predictions right (0 came true, 0 were wrong), with 0 still pending.
How is the score calculated?
Came true = 1, mostly true = 0.75, partly true = 0.5, wrong = 0, averaged over resolved predictions. Pending predictions aren't scored until they resolve.