ashen's predictions
Public predictions ashen (@ashen_one) made from 2023-11 to 2026-11, each checked against what happened.
low confidence
3 wrong
Needs 5 resolved predictions to be ranked. This score is low confidence.
By topic
Accuracy on the calls that have resolved, with the sample size.
- Crypto0%
3 resolved · low confidence
Longest-horizon call
Stated deadline 2024-09-22.
- Wrong2024-04-30· Crypto· due 2024-09-22
100k BTC this summer mark my words the chinese do not play around
'100k BTC this summer.' BTC did not reach $100k until 2024-12-05.
Scored predictions
- Wrong2024-04-30· Crypto· due 2024-09-22
100k BTC this summer mark my words the chinese do not play around
'100k BTC this summer.' BTC did not reach $100k until 2024-12-05.
- Wrong2024-04-20· Crypto· due 2024-05-20
100KBTC IN 30 DAYS. MARK MY WORDS.
'100K BTC in 30 days.' BTC fell below $58k by 2024-05-01 and first topped $100k on 2024-12-05.
- Wrong2024-04-02· Crypto· due 2024-04-30
april is up only month, mark my words.
'April is up only month.' BTC fell ~15% in April 2024, its worst month since the FTX crash.
Compare with other makers
91.7%6 resolved · low confidence
43.8%8 resolved · medium confidence
20%5 resolved · low confidence
100%2 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
ashen's maker profile →Last checked 2026-11-05
Frequently asked questions
How accurate are ashen's predictions?
ashen's tracked predictions score 0% across 3 resolved calls (low confidence). 0 are still pending.
How is the score calculated?
Came true = 1, mostly true = 0.75, partly true = 0.5, mostly wrong = 0.25, wrong = 0, averaged over resolved predictions. Pending calls and posts that are too vague to check are not scored. Personal goals are included unless the filter on this page is checked. Confidence is low below 8 resolved, medium from 8 to 15, and high above 15.