Alex Finn's predictions
Public predictions Alex Finn (@AlexFinn) made from 2023-11 to 2026-11, each checked against what happened.
low confidence
2 wrong · 4 pending · 2 not checkable
Needs 5 resolved predictions to be ranked. This score is low confidence.
Next deadline: 2027-01-29. Pending calls are not part of the score.
By topic
Accuracy on the calls that have resolved, with the sample size.
- Social media0%
2 resolved · low confidence
Longest-horizon call
Stated deadline 2025-11-09.
- Wrong2024-11-09· Social media· due 2025-11-09
I bet my life savings that X will be the biggest social media platform in the world in the next 12 months Over the last week people realized 3 things: 1. Freedom of speech matters 2. The mainstream media is a bunch of frauds 3. The truth lives on X X is the only free speech
'X will be the biggest social media platform in the world in the next 12 months.' YouTube, WhatsApp, Facebook, Instagram and TikTok led by active users in 2025 (DataReportal); X was not in the top five. He restated the same bet on 2025-01-11 (x.com/AlexFinn/status/1878155287728902631), which also failed by Jan 2026.
Scored predictions
- Wrong2024-11-09· Social media· due 2025-11-09
I bet my life savings that X will be the biggest social media platform in the world in the next 12 months Over the last week people realized 3 things: 1. Freedom of speech matters 2. The mainstream media is a bunch of frauds 3. The truth lives on X X is the only free speech
'X will be the biggest social media platform in the world in the next 12 months.' YouTube, WhatsApp, Facebook, Instagram and TikTok led by active users in 2025 (DataReportal); X was not in the top five. He restated the same bet on 2025-01-11 (x.com/AlexFinn/status/1878155287728902631), which also failed by Jan 2026.
- Wrong2024-06-10· Social media· due 2024-12-31
@elonmusk X will be the number one live-streaming platform by the end of the year
Said X would be the #1 live-streaming platform by end of 2024. In Q4 2024 YouTube held ~70% of global live hours watched, Twitch ~23% and Kick ~3.5% (Streams Charts). X was not a contender.
Pending
Not resolved yet, so not counted. Dated calls are listed first.
- Pending2026-01-29· Apple· due 2027-01-29
@ThePhunky1 I'm 100% serious I think this will create the biggest bum rush ever for Apple computers over the next 12 months. It starts with the Mac Mini then in 6 months it becomes the Mac Studio. I just bought my Mac Studio before there are none left.
Biggest rush for Apple computers over the next 12 months.
- Pending2025-01-27· Markets· due 2030-01-27
@amitisinvesting Bought more NVDA today. There is literally a 100% chance it is higher than this deflated price point in 5 years
NVDA higher in 5 years.
- Pending2024-04-05· Creator economy· due 2030-12-31
X billionaires will be born by 2030. Guaranteed Elon is actively building out functionality and features that will make you way more money These empires are being built now, not in 10 years Build your audience, provide value, watch it returned back to you 100x
'X billionaires will be born by 2030.'
- Pending2024-05-14· Education· due 2034-05-14
College will be extinct in 10 years ChatGPT will replace our corrupt and broken college system that is destroying our middle class. Thank God. Why would anyone pay $200,000 for college when ChatGPT can teach you everything for free This is a very realistic future You tell ChatGPT what you want to learn, it builds out an entire curriculum for you and teaches you everything. When you apply for a job the employer's AI will talk to your personal AI and determine if you learned everything you need for the position $60,000 a year colleges are BEGGING to be disrupted THIS is the technology that will do that The executives that are lining their pockets with the debt of the middle class are shaking in their boots
College extinct in 10 years.
Not checkable
Kept so the record is complete. Too vague, or a private metric, so not scored.
- Not checkable2024-12-31· AI capability
@valentinsounds X will be the winner of the internet by 2026
Vague / not measurable.
- Not checkable2024-01-27· AI capability
@barkman_ I don't agree, there's a lot more business opportunity building applications at the moment rather than prompt engineering. I actually believe AI will get so good within the next 12 months that prompt engineering will be a thing of the past. The AI will be smart enough to know
Prompt engineering 'obsolete'. No clear test.
Compare with other makers
91.7%6 resolved · low confidence
43.8%8 resolved · medium confidence
20%5 resolved · low confidence
100%2 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
100%1 resolved · low confidence
Alex Finn's maker profile →Last checked 2026-11-05
Frequently asked questions
How accurate are Alex Finn's predictions?
Alex Finn's tracked predictions score 0% across 2 resolved calls (low confidence). 4 are still pending.
How is the score calculated?
Came true = 1, mostly true = 0.75, partly true = 0.5, mostly wrong = 0.25, wrong = 0, averaged over resolved predictions. Pending calls and posts that are too vague to check are not scored. Personal goals are included unless the filter on this page is checked. Confidence is low below 8 resolved, medium from 8 to 15, and high above 15.